The Patriots didn't cover the -3 late closing line against the Steelers but they did cover most numbers in a bounce back win in Week 2 after losing in Week 1 to Miami. He is 36-13 straight up (73.5%) and 38-10 (79.2%) against the spread when the Patriots are favored by less than a touchdown, or are an underdog after losing. Panthers preview or return to the table of contentsĪnthony Dabbundo: The trends on Bill Belichick off of a loss in the NFL are hard to ignore.
#Week 4 odds nfl full#
The wrong team is favored in this game Sunday.īet Cardinals -1.5 on FanDuel | Play to -2.5 Read the full Cardinals vs. It’s not often you can get points versus the 32nd-ranked signal caller, according to QBR. In this case, we actually get the superior team, whose difficult early season schedule has given us several points of value. One reason road underdogs are so profitable is simply because bettors do not like to wager on inferior teams - especially when they won’t be feeding off the home crowd. His quarterback has not fared much better either.īaker Mayfield is 11-22-1 (33.3%) in his career as a favorite and home-field advantage hasn't done much to save him as he is 7-13-1 (35%) as a home favorite. In his time in Carolina, Rhule is 3-10 (23%) ATS when the Panthers are expected to win. In comparison, Matt Rhule has failed when listed as the favorite. John LanFranca: It’s well well documented that the Cardinals under Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray have been highly profitable as underdogs as Kingsbury is 19-9-2 (68%) against the spread when catching points. Eagles preview or return to the table of contents But I'd still play the over at 45.5 barring a major change in the forecast. You may want to monitor for more weather news that could drive this total down below the key number of 45. Given the rain doesn't look particularly heavy on Sunday and the moderate projected winds are insignificant, this is a contrarian over play for me. This total is a touch low because of the strong under trend across the league and the potential for bad weather in Philly. The Jaguars' defensive backfield showed plenty of flaws against Wentz in Week 1 and will probably get exposed again facing a well protected and healthy quarterback this week.Įven if Jacksonville is down multiple scores, the accuracy of Lawrence and the conservatism of Eagles defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon is sure to leave plenty of backdoor points available. The Eagles did go under their last two games, but that was more a function of blowouts than anything else.
Given that both offenses are top five in efficiency, the total sitting at 45.5 seems too low.
#Week 4 odds nfl pro#
Ravens preview or return to the table of contentsĪnthony Dabbundo: Our Action Network pro projection has this total at 47.5. Trust Baltimore in a weather-stricken game. Jackson's turnover-worthy play rate is only 2.9% compared to Allen’s 5.2% per PFF.įollow the money and the experts. The Bills will also likely put the ball in harm's way more than the Ravens. I mentioned Buffalo being beaten up and struggling to force those plays last week. Baltimore ranks 13th in run block grade, according to Pro Football Focus, while Buffalo is dead last.Īlso, bad weather means your mistakes are amplified. With wet and windy weather, the Ravens have the edge. This pushed the game from who can make more plays to which offense will make fewer mistakes? This made the answer clear: Baltimore. Rarely, impactful early in the year but in Baltimore there is a 90% chance of rain with 10-15 mph winds. The betting agreed, with 80% of the money is on the Ravens to cover.Īfter checking for what I had been missing, it was the weather. Astonishingly, it was clear 12-0 that the Ravens were the side they liked. Then I hopped to the Action App to see how our experts were picking this game. It felt like picking one team was essentially trying to call who would have the ball last. Phillip Kall: At the start of the week, I had no idea which side to turn to in this game.
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